India's economic growth is projected to experience its first deceleration since 2022, with CEIC’s GDP Nowcast projecting a 7.1% y/y increase in Q3 2023 (Q2 FY2024). If confirmed by the Ministry of Statistics official release due on Thursday, November 30th, it would represent a slowdown from the 7.8% y/y GDP growth rate in the previous quarter.

Furthermore, CEIC’s GDP Nowcast for the following quarter, Q4 2023 (Q3 FY2024), estimates that India’s economic growth will pick up again significantly to 10.3% y/y. If confirmed, this would be the highest since Q2 2022.

CEIC’s proprietary GDP Nowcast estimates the economic growth in India in near real-time based on a set of selected high-frequency indicators employed in a dynamic factor model. India’s quarterly GDP data is published with a significant lag – a whopping two months after the reference quarter, underscoring the value of the nowcast as a key monitoring tool of economic performance. CEIC's nowcast has a proven track record of accurate predictions, with the previous one (for Q2 2023) pointing to exactly 7.8% y/y during the two months leading to the official release in late August.