--- title: "CEIC Article: US jobless rate holds steady in our newest nowcast" description: Will Jerome Powell follow up his election-week rate cut with another in December? While the Federal Reserve chief will be considering the inflationary impact of president-elect Trump's policies, another factor will be the job market. image: https://info.ceicdata.com/hubfs/US%20unemployment%20nowcast%20impact%20by%20factor.webp --- [![](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hub/4289410/hubfs/Ceicdata_March2018/images/ceic-logo-Vector%20logo%20no%20tagline%20(002).png?width=160&name=ceic-logo-Vector%20logo%20no%20tagline%20(002).png)](https://www.ceicdata.com/en) [![Ceicdata](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/4289410/Ceicdata_March2018/images/footer-logo.png "Ceicdata")](https://www.ceicdata.com/) ## Countries ## Indicators ## Products ## Blog ## About - [facebook](http://www.facebook.com/ceicdata) - [twitter](http://twitter.com/CEICData1) - [linked in](http://www.linkedin.com/company/ceic-data) - [googleplus](https://plus.google.com/109656183085066342549) CEICData.com © 2018 Copyright All Rights Reserved # US jobless rate holds steady in our newest nowcast Will Jerome Powell follow up his election-week rate cut with another in December? While the Federal Reserve chief will be considering the inflationary impact of president-elect Trump's policies, another factor will be the job market. [**CEIC's newest nowcast assesses the US unemployment rate**](https://insights.ceicdata.com/United-States-Unemployment-Rate-Nowcast) - and finds that the softening trend seen earlier in 2024 has paused; "predicting the present" shows that the labor market is extending its recent stability. (The Bureau of Labor Statistics is not slated to release the November data until Dec. 6.) So far this month, November unemployment likely stands at 4.1%, our nowcast indicates - a level that has been unchanged since September, despite the Fed's 50-basis-point cut that month and subsequent 25-basis-point cut earlier this month. From January through July, unemployment had climbed from 3.7% to 4.3% in the wake of Powell's historic tightening cycle. ![Latest CEIC nowcast suggests stable labor conditions in the US](https://info.ceicdata.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Latest%20CEIC%20nowcast%20suggests%20stable%20labor%20conditions%20in%20the%20US.webp?width=1137&height=389&name=Latest%20CEIC%20nowcast%20suggests%20stable%20labor%20conditions%20in%20the%20US.webp) CEIC's weekly nowcasts are updated every Monday. Our proprietary technology deploys a comprehensive machine-learning framework to extract signals from various high-frequency datasets. Our approach dynamically adjusts their contributions, allowing users to understand the sources of these signals. (As our second chart shows, balance-sheet and breakeven inflation rate indicators have been particularly important of late.) ![US unemployment nowcast impact by factor](https://info.ceicdata.com/hs-fs/hubfs/US%20unemployment%20nowcast%20impact%20by%20factor.webp?width=1137&height=389&name=US%20unemployment%20nowcast%20impact%20by%20factor.webp) CEIC users can get another take on the US job market from our nowcast of **[nonfarm payrolls – which calls for 164,000 new jobs added for November.](https://insights.ceicdata.com/7fc7085d-db5f-437d-b9e5-d30a53f35ad9)** NFP underperformed in October, with just 12,000 new jobs added - the smallest gains since 2020. This was likely an aberration due to the aftermath of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, however; the storms disrupted not just the normal functioning of the job market, but data collection. Returning to more indicators watched by Jay Powell's Fed, we are also nowcasting personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index. Our nowcast calls for **[PCE inflation to have remained broadly stable at 2.1% in October](https://insights.ceicdata.com/5a1dc791-330f-45ae-8a5c-10eed624af95)**, with a mild uptick to 2.2% through November. This is near the Fed's 2% target. The picture painted by this data would seem to give Powell (and Trump) consider room to maneuver on policy. Outgoing President Biden's administration might take some solace from the encouraging inflation and employment trends as their term winds down. ***Explore more of CEIC's proprietary nowcasts:*** ***[United States Inflation Nowcast](https://insights.ceicdata.com/United-States-Inflation-Nowcast)*** ***[Japan Inflation Nowcast](https://insights.ceicdata.com/Japan-Inflation-Nowcast)*** *[**Euro Area Inflation Nowcast**](https://insights.ceicdata.com/Euro-Area-Inflation-Nowcast)*   If you are a CEIC user, access the story [here](https://insights.ceicdata.com/US-jobless-rate-holds-steady-in-our-newest-nowcast/views). 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