The labour market in the United States is not exhibiting any clear signs of cooling yet. On the contrary: weekly job postings have been on an upward trend since late September 2023, albeit with a few brief declines.

In the week of February 26th, new job postings, as sourced by Revelio Labs, stood at 2.4 million, up 33% from the all-time low of 1.8 million in late September. Coupled with the accelerated wage growth in January (4.5% y/y vs 4.3% y/y in December), the hiring revival is yet another signal to the Federal Reserve that it should wait before cutting interest rates. (The Federal Open Market Committee meets on March 20 and is widely expected to hold rates steady.)

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The weekly job postings data is derived from three key sources: job advertisement aggregator portals, LinkedIn, and corporate websites. The indicator for new job ads has historically moved in sync with the job openings figure provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the most recent release from the government statistics bureau was in January, underscoring the alternative indicator's value as a more up-to-date measure.

Monthly job openings reached a trough in December (8.3 million, the lowest in almost three years) before rebounding to 8.9 million in January, tracking the path of the weekly data. On Friday, March 8, the BLS will release further key indicators; these will be closely monitored by the Fed and the markets.

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The labour market is unlikely to be the only cause for concern among policy makers. Inflation, while substantially down from its 2022 peak, is not slowing consistently. According to CEIC's weekly inflation nowcast, price growth accelerated in February, with the weekly figures ranging between 3.5 and 3.7% y/y. That's up from 3.1% y/y in January. (Official data on price growth in the US will be released on March 12.)

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