US 50% steel & aluminum tariffs kick in

To analyze the effect on domestic production of both metals, we visualized the 2016-2020 period. (There are two lines for aluminum in our chart: primary production refers to the electricity-intensive process of making the metal from raw materials, while secondary production involves recycling scrap aluminum and is less energy-intensive.)

While primary production saw a strong increase after Trump's tariffs kicked in during 2018, it's important to note the base effect for year-on-year comparisons: 2017 saw a sharp deterioration in production, as our chart shows. (This was partly due to high US energy costs, though imports from China and global oversupply were also blamed.)

As Canada and Mexico moved to sign Trump's USMCA trade deal, the metal tariffs were lifted on both nations in 2019. Primary aluminum production gains then leveled off in the months before the pandemic. Meanwhile, iron ore production was largely little changed throughout Trump's first presidency.

Our subsequent pie charts compare sources of US aluminum imports (2014 vs 2024) and steel imports (2019 vs 2024). With no 2019-style relief in sight yet, Canada will be hit by the tariffs: it's by far the biggest source of US aluminum imports, and ranks first for imported steel as well. (Meanwhile, Mexico is reportedly in talks for a quota that would see its steel tariffs reduced. Tariffs on the UK will be "only" 25% thanks to the trade deal signed in May, but its share of the US market is small -- roughly 1% of imports for both metals.)

CEIC users can toggle these pie charts to compare four years at once, and go back even further. In 2004, for instance, Canada's share of US aluminum imports approached 50%. (Quebec's abundant, cheap hydro-electricity and short sea shipping times to Northeast US customers have made aluminum a key local industry for more than a century.)