Trump's looming tariff threats on Canada, Mexico and China

Less than two weeks after his inauguration, President Donald Trump followed through on his promises and announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as 10% tariff on Chinese imports.

At the last minute, Mexico and Canada managed to strike deals to avoid these levies – for now; these will be reviewed in a month. The tariffs could hit roughly 40% of total US imports, with the potential to impact global trade patterns and reignite inflation.

For a holistic picture that frames potential future developments in this space, CEIC has assembled historic data on the former NAFTA partners – and the related China-US trade relationship.

For Canada, oil and vehicles are the sectors most at stake. These categories account for more than half of total Canadian exports to the US. In Mexico, machinery and transport equipment account for 60% of exports to the US (which have increased by 50% during the past decade).

After the initial trade dramas in Trump's first term, both China and the US strengthened cooperation with other trading partners. The US trade deficit and Chinese trade surplus with the rest of the world have expanded simultaneously.

We have also identified the US sectors with the most exposure to Chinese imports and the Chinese sectors most reliant on the US market.

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