This high-frequency indicator showing a resilient US consumer in June

The resilience of the US consumer continues amid the Federal Reserve's reticence to cut rates, according to a high-frequency indicator that often acts as an early-warning alert for the broader economy.

Retail sales picked up in mid-June, according to the Johnson Redbook Index, which is available to CEIC users. Redbook Research generates this indicator by analyzing year-on-year same-store sales growth at large retailers.

The Johnson Redbook Index of retail sales in the week of June 15 increased at a 5.9% annualized pace, accelerating from 5.5% in the previous week. This was a broad-based phenomenon: Johnson Redbook's readings for both department stores (where sales had been more stagnant) and discounters (which have had a more robust 2023-24) saw a pick-up.

Johnson Redbook contrasts with the pessimistic picture painted by official figures. The recently released monthly retail sales data for May marked a second consecutive monthly deceleration: total retail and food-services sales grew at an annualized 2.3% in May, down from the 2.7% pace in April.

We have also charted monthly readings of the Johnson Redbook same-store sales index and its component sectors. The apparel industry stands out for its weakness in May. (This sector's reading has been in negative territory since early 2023.)

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