The week starts with China's foreign trade for May after its trade balance increased on a monthly basis in April for the first time this year.

Also on Monday, Japan's Economic and Social Research Institute is expected to publish its composite indicators for April. The Japanese economic sentiment has been on a sustained upward trend since June 2020 with the composite leading index reaching its highest level since 2017 in March. The People's Bank of China will also publish the FOREX reserve data for May. On Tuesday, Korea and Japan are going to publish the April balance of payments data for the two countries.

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Two major releases for economic activity in Germany are also expected on that day - the industrial production index for April and ZEW economic expectations indicator for June. The balance of payments-based trade data for the US for April will also be released. The US Census Bureau data published on May 28 showed USD 85.2bn trade deficit for the world's largest economy and these figures are expected to be confirmed by the balance of payments data as well.
On Wednesday, the May inflation data for China is scheduled to be released. Since the beginning of 2021, the Chinese inflation has slowly been picking up, reaching 0.9% y/y in April, but it remains far below its historical levels as well the current inflation levels of most of the other major economies. Germany's trade balance for April will also be released on that day as well as the May inflation for Brazil. In April, the CPI growth of Latin America's largest economy continued to accelerate to 6.7%, the highest annual inflation since 2016.

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On Thursday, Japan's producer price index for May is going to be released after a six-year high of 3.6% y/y recorded in April. Also, there will be two major releases for the US - the May CPI inflation and the weekly jobless claims. In China, the People's Bank of China is going to release some key monetary indicators for May including loans, total social financing, and money supply.

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On Friday, some key data releases for the UK are expected to be published, including the April data for trade balance and industrial production. The April data for India's manufacturing production will also be released on that day as well as the May car sales data for China.

India Economy in a Snapshot - Q2 2021

India’s real GDP increased by 1.6% y/y in Q1 2021, expanding further from Q4 2020 that registered a growth of 0.5% y/y, thereby registering a decline of 7.3% y/y for the whole fiscal year FY2021, ending in March 2021. The growth for Q1 2021 was powered by favourable base effects, continued economic policy support, and the vaccination drive.

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Even though the quarter witnessed a growth, many of the high-frequency indicators that had picked up momentum in Q4 2020 moderated in the first two months of 2021, such as industrial production. Many indicators only experienced an increase on account of low base. The worsening COVID-19 situation by end March 2021 dented the economic recovery process. However, since the second wave peaked in the month of April, the major economic impact is likely to moderate the high growth estimated for Q2 2021 due to low base effect.

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