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The release of China's loan prime rate for March is scheduled for Monday. With China's economic recovery still uneven and inflation fluctuating around zero since October, one of China benchmark interest rates is likely to remain unchanged at the level of 3.85% pa for one-year maturity and 4.65% pa for five-year maturity.
On Tuesday, the UK Claimant Count data, measuring the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, for February is scheduled to be released by the Office for National Statistics. In the US, the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank will release the March manufacturing index.
The Bank of Japan's monetary policy committee meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, followed by UK inflation data for February and Markit PMI data for various major economies like the US and the Euro Area.
On Thursday, the GFK Group is going to release its April consumer climate survey for Germany. The IFO business climate index, another key measure for the development of the German economy, will be released on Friday.
Again on Friday, Japan's Statistical Bureau releases the March CPI data after four months of negative inflation. Then, key economic activity data for the UK and the US are expected - retail sales for the UK and personal income and expenditure for the US.
On Saturday, China's National Bureau of Economic Research will publish the February data on industrial profits.
In March, our partner FocusEconomics has approved its median consensus forecast for the growth of the US economy in 2021 to 4.75% , up from the 4.08% forecast in February. Fixed investment in the United States is expected to improve by 7.45% in 2021 and the private consumption will increase by 5.98%, both indicators being revised upward compared to February. The US economic outlook continues amid the approved large-scale fiscal stimulus package aimed to support the economic recovery and the substantial progress in vaccinations. As of 18 March, there are 75.5 million people vaccinated in the United States, which represents 22.6% of the population.
CEIC Leading Indicator: Economies Regain January Losses
While the values of the CEIC Leading Indicator for January 2021 showed a visible moderation in the recovery pace, February data suggests that most of the surveyed countries are back on track. Economies such as the Euro Area, Russia, Japan and the US regained their pace from the end of 2020, while China, Indonesia and India built upon their continuous acceleration. The only country where deceleration is more pronounced is Brazil but the values of the CEIC Leading Indicator are still comfortably above the threshold level of 100.
Impact of External Commercial Borrowings in India
In India, the term external commercial borrowings (ECBs) refers to borrowings within the country from creditors abroad for commercial purposes. These creditors could be commercial banks, capital market investors, importers, or foreign partner among others. ECBs can broadly be divided in two categories – automatic and approved. Automatic borrowings are direct transactions that do not require regulatory approval, whereas approved borrowings need a prior permission. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the regulatory authority in charge of ECBs and is also responsible for regulating the usage and tenure of such borrowings. ECBs are usually used to fund private investment in the country and thus could be a critical step in fostering growth. There are also some downsides and risks associated with these borrowings that require careful consideration.
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A Detailed Look at China's Four Budget Accounts
China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) releases monthly data only on the general public budget and the government fund budget. The revenue of these two budgets accounted for 76% of the consolidated budget revenue and for 81% of the consolidated budget expenditure in 2019. Complete data on all four budgets is only available annually. At the beginning of each year, MOF publishes preliminary data on the previous year’s general public budget, government fund budget and state-owned capital budget. The preliminary data for 2020 was released on January 28, 2021. Secondary data on the previous year’s consolidated budget with more details is released during the annual National People’s Congress (NPC), usually held in March each year. In Q3, MOF releases the final accounts of the previous year’s consolidated budget, which also include some revisions on preliminary and secondary data. The final accounts for the 2019 consolidated budget were released on August 10, 2020.
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