The ASEAN export surge and the daily shipping data that predicted it

As our first chart shows, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam saw exports surge last month, as measured by the year-on-year rate of change.

With US trade policy in flux as Trump rolls out and pauses tariffs, high-frequency maritime data gives a sense of exporters' response almost in real time.

We've charted ship departures for 2024 against 2025 for the major ASEAN markets. In all ASEAN-6 nations besides Singapore, exports have been running above 2024's trend since mid-April.

One could surmise that firms front-loaded their exports in anticipation of potential tariff escalation. While the overall momentum appears to be fading recently - especially in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand - shipment activity remains elevated from last year.

Visit our dashboard on Marine Traffic here. This source provides port calls and port congestion statistics for over 200 countries, with further breakdowns available by major ports and vessel types; its high-frequency data also feed into our trade nowcasts.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.