Swiping cards and eating sandwiches on the go: real-time indicators of weaker UK spending

To get a real-time sense of consumer confidence, watch Britons' use of their payment cards – especially their spending on takeaway sandwiches and coffee.

The Clearing House Automated Payment System (CHAPS) offers a payment card transaction index that tracks activity on both credit and debit cards. Such high-frequency data was inspired by the need to get a sense of real-time consumption during the disruptions of the pandemic. CHAPS covers payments by merchant acquirers to approximately 100 major retail corporations, while adopting a broader definition of retail to include transport services and social activities.

Our first visualization compares the daily CHAPS index to the official UK retail sales figure, which is released monthly. We've also added dotted lines for the CHAPS breakdowns into "staple" and "delayable," i.e. daily essentials such as food and utilities, versus discretionary spending on clothes, vehicles, furnishings and the like. (Unsurprisingly, the latter is more volatile.)

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We've also charted a monthly average for CHAPS. In April of 2024 the index showed transactions fell 6% year on year, compared with a negative 2.4 pace in March.

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Next, we look at the "Pret a Manger Index." Data tracking in-store transactions at this ubiquitous sandwich chain is broken down between various London locales (airports, train stations, and the financial district, for instance) and other British regions. Transactions are compared with January 2020 levels to get a sense of post-pandemic commuting trends. April figures have broadly shown a slightly weakening trend.

The ONS retail sales figures will be published on May 24. A weak figure would add to the mixed UK economic picture as rate-cut expectations get delayed. It would be at odds with other recent data, such as pay growth, which recently came in surprisingly strong.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.