The state of Uttar Pradesh is the largest in India by population, and hence, the outcome of state elections can provide an insight into the outcome of general elections which are to be held in two years. National parties such as the Indian National Congress (INC), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have occupied ruling status in history in parts, but Uttar Pradesh has largely been ruled by regional parties since the latter half of the 90s. One of the key regional parties is the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), headed by Mayawati as party president, and the second is the Samajwadi Party (SP), which is headed by Akhilesh Yadav, son of the previous president of SP, Mulayam Singh Yadav.

In 2017, Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the incumbent at the time, the SP, forged an alliance with the Indian National Congress, to strengthen its vote share against the BJP. Despite so, the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi helped BJP win a majority to form the ruling government, even in the absence of a projected chief ministerial candidate prior to the elections. The BJP occupied about 40% of the total vote share, while the SP and INC collectively occupied a vote share of about 28%. The BSP trailed behind SP and INC, with 22% of the vote share. In terms of seats, BJP won a total of 312 seats out of 403, while the INC and SP won 54, and BSP won 19.

Uttar Pradesh assembly elections of 2022 will be held in 7 phases, between February 10, and March 7. In Phase 1, key battleground districts would be Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Atrauli, Mathura, and Thana Bhawan. One of the key parties, the SP has formed an alliance with Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which had won 1 seat but historically won around 10-12 seats in the elections prior to 2017. As Uttar Pradesh remains one of the largest sugarcane producing belts of India, the farm protests of 2020 have dented some votes against the incumbent BJP. The ruling party has now introduced a reduced power tariff for private tube wells. The SP-RLD alliance, on the other hand, has promised free electricity and loan waivers (Indian Express). Unfortunately for the contesting parties, the campaigning has been impacted by the outbreak of the third wave of COVID-19 in India.

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