Poland and Baltic nations stand out in CEE bond and equity fund flows

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development upgraded its GDP growth forecast for Poland recently, citing the strength of domestic demand, EU-funded investments, and falling inflation that has enabled stimulative government spending.

Consequently, Poland's equity and bond markets have been popular with international investors this year. Fund-flow data from our partners at EPFR shows how the nation is outpacing peers elsewhere in central and eastern Europe (CEE).

So far this year, investors have put a net USD 1.2 billion into Polish bonds (both sovereign and corporate). Czechia is a distant second in our chart, with USD 326 billion of bond fund inflows. Romania and Hungary are notable for posting bond fund outflows.

For equities, Poland again tops the table, with USD 140 million of inflows year-to-date. Romania and Hungary post positive performance this time, coming second and third respectively with about USD 100 million and USD 57 million of inflows each. (There are fewer nations on the equity fund chart; so far, the data isn't yet available for Slovakia, Latvia, and Croatia.)

Measured in absolute terms, the biggest economies tend to dominate; but when recent inflows are compared to a country's total assets under management (AUM), this year's relative outperformers are revealed.

On this basis, Estonia is the biggest winner for bond inflows in 2024 so far. Bond fund flows in the first half account for 5.4% of total AUM. Poland again performs well, tying Slovenia at 4.9% for second place.

In equities, Lithuania stands out: inflows so far this year accounted for a whopping 13.7% of AUM. No other country saw an inflow of more than 2%. Poland, the biggest beneficiary on an absolute basis, saw an inflow in relative terms of just 0.6% of total AUM.

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