Middle East shipping traffic recovers even in a time of war

With an Israel-Iran ceasefire holding for now, we've examining the effects on shipping using high-frequency data from MarineTraffic. Since Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities, Middle East port arrivals and departures -- perhaps surprisingly -- are rebounding on a year-on-year basis.

A pickup in Iranian oil shipments has occurred very recently. But in the broader region, the recovery is driven in part by the base effect -- i.e., weakness in last year's comparative figures, when the wider region was arguably more dangerous for shipping. After all, the current round of conflict between Israel and Iran's proxy militias goes back to the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.

We've highlighted the mid-2024 period to provide context for the current year-on-year improvement: Israel was targeting leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, and Iran launched a direct missile attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi militia -- also Iran-backed -- was still threatening Red Sea shipping.

The trend changed in April 2024; Middle East port traffic growth started slowing year-on-year, and then shrinking.

Since late 2024, Houthi attacks became less of a factor as maritime companies rerouted shipping. The Houthis halted their attacks after a ceasefire deal with Washington in May, and Red Sea traffic is picking up again.

Our second chart breaks down the Middle East shipping figures by country. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are showing strong recent year-on-year improvement.

The biggest surprise might be Iran, however. It saw a surge in marine traffic as more Iranian crude was reportedly shipped to key Asian markets.

As for Israel itself, shipping traffic is down in absolute numbers since June 13. The downturn is not nearly as severe as it is for air traffic, however -- with Israeli airspace often closed, flights have plunged to levels last seen in October 2023, according to data from the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (also known as EUROCONTROL).