After decelerating for two months, the manufacturing PMI for India increased to 54.9 in February 2022, from 54.0 in the previous month, which can be attributed to a resumption of economic activity post the relaxation of restrictions after the third wave of COVID-19.

A gradual recovery in private consumption and growing exports are expected to aid manufacturing, but on the downside, the impact of the Ukraine Russia war can be potentially adverse, especially via the route of inflation.

The output index, measuring the total volume of units produced over the month, expanded by 1.1pt, to 57.7 in February 2022. The new orders index grew to 57.6, from 56.6 in January 2022. The increase in export orders was less pronounced, which climbed up to 51.6, by 0.5pts. The employment index, measuring full time employment, also increased in February, to 49.8, inching closer to the 50-mark which demarcates between contraction and expansion. The backlogs of work index which looks at levels of unfinished orders, remained unchanged at 50.5.

The total quantity of purchases stood at 56.9, marking the third consecutive decrease in a row. Stocks of purchases also reduced by 0.2pts to 55.1. However, the stocks of finished goods, which are awaiting sales, increased by 1.5pts to 45.8. Suppliers’ delivery times grew to 48.8 by 0.3pts, moving closer towards the shorter average delivery time (above 50). Interestingly, the survey points that input prices have eased for a fourth month, to 57.3 in February 2022, from 58.4 in January. Over the same period, output prices also decreased by 0.7pts to 51.0. Orders to inventories ratio, which is released with a month lag, remained unchanged in January 2022, while capacity utilisation index decreased by 0.1pt to 51.1. These suggest a recovery in the manufacturing sector in the aftermath of the third wave of COVID-19, which had an even lesser impact that the second one.

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