High-frequency US jobs data suggests April JOLTS improvement might not last

JOLTS is a deeper assessment of the US job market than the monthly payroll reports, which are reported considerably earlier. It digs into metrics such as the ratio of job openings to unemployment - a key ratio watched by the Federal Reserve - as well as "quits" (voluntary departures from a job) versus layoffs.

April’s JOLTS showed a surprise rebound in job openings, rising to 7.4 million after three consecutive monthly declines. (However, layoffs also edged higher and quits declined.)

CEIC tracks weekly active job postings from Revelio Labs. At the time of publication, there were four data points since the end of April to consider; they all show an easing trend.

As our second chart shows, JOLTS' ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has eased to around 1, i.e. the number of job seekers roughly matches available positions. This matches the September 2024 post-pandemic trough, though it's notable that this ratio still indicates a job market stronger than anything seen in 2001-2018.

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