When it comes to exchange rates, fund flows continue to send strong predictive signals. Recently, international asset-allocation trends are pointing to a "Trump factor" that might weaken the Malaysian ringgit. We can explore this phenomenon thanks to our partnership with EPFR and its wealth of data on flows into equity and bond markets.

The ringgit strengthened against USD between July and September, peaking at about 4.1 MYR per US dollar. As we wrote at the time, this was linked to a combination of optimism about the tech-driven Malaysian economy and the US pivot to lower rates.

Since then, there has been a retreat to about 4.4 MYR per dollar; another leg down come after Donald Trump won re-election to the US presidency, vowing to impose tariffs that would hit exporting nations like Malaysia.

As our visualization shows, daily fund flows into Malaysian assets (as measured by a 30-day rolling average) began tapering well before the election. This foreshadowed MYR's decline from its peak.

After the election, we can see the beginning of the largest equity outflows in more than a year. If the previous relationship holds, expect MYR to weaken further against USD – though the outflow trend has tapered in recent weeks.

We also tapped EPFR data to compare the year-to-date flows for the ASEAN-6 nations. In equities, Malaysia has been a relative outperformer, but Singapore – arguably less exposed to US tariffs on goods exports – has done even better; it's the only nation in positive net inflow territory. Thailand fares worst.

As our final chart shows, trading in the rest of the ASEAN-6 nations' currencies largely tracked the ringgit's pattern of peaking in September and weakening further after Trump's win.

We invite you to visit our ASEAN-6 dashboard, which delves further into regional trends. CEIC users can explore how fund flows tend to signal major currency appreciation or depreciation, with differing "lead times" between nations.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.