Examining Mexico's border states with US exports at risk

CEIC continues to watch Donald Trump's tariff plans for America's former NAFTA partners as his temporary exemption for Mexico (and Canada) expires at the end of this month.

Some 83% of Mexico's exports go to the US. To identify the regions most at risk, we are revisiting one of our recently added datasets for Mexico, which offers granular, quarterly data by category and state.

Unsurprisingly, the six states bordering the US account for almost 60% of Mexico's total exports, as our first chart shows. From west to east, these include Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon (which includes the metropolis of Monterrey) and Tamaulipas, across from Texas' southern tip.

Coahuila is particularly specialized in autos – a sector where tariffs would be seriously impactful on Mexico as a whole. As we have written earlier, vehicles make up roughly 70% of the nation's total exports.

Our second chart ranks states by their most recent export growth rates (Q3 2024). Our six border states are not ranked particularly highly; Coahuila and Baja California exports are hardly growing at all. The best border-state performer on this basis is Chihuahua, whose exports rose at a 24% pace year-on-year.

The states posting the best export growth are exposed to industries where demand is global, rather than American-oriented. Guerrero – far from the US border, and best known for the resort of Acapulco – posted the highest growth, at almost 80% year-on-year; its export industries are focused on agriculture and mining. Also known for mining is the central state of Zacatecas, which came second (at 62% growth).

On the other end of the spectrum are the southeastern states of Campeche, Tabasco and Chiapas, which saw exports shrink more than 20% year on year.

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