The world has already braced for higher chocolate prices, with cocoa futures reaching all-time highs of over USD 8,000 per metric ton in mid-March, up by 200% year-on-year. The question is not if these prices will affect the final consumer, but rather when. The main reason for the poor harvest was unfavorable weather conditions and crop diseases in West Africa, where Ivory Coast and Ghana account for over half of the world's cocoa production. Ivory Coast alone leads by producing over 40% of the world's cocoa.

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The main harvest season in Ivory Coast, which typically lasts from November until the end of March, is not yet over, leaving a chance for 2024 to experience improved weather conditions. Daily rainfall data available within CEIC sends mixed signals. Total rainfall in January was 322.6 mm, exceeding the normal level of 245.3 mm. This was welcomed by farmers, especially during the dry season (November to March). February, however, saw less precipitation than normal, although the deviation was not as extreme as in June 2023, when rainfall was over 50% more than usual, damaging crops. Normal precipitation levels are defined as the 30-year average (1991-2020) for a given time of the year.

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Cocoa price increases have significantly outpaced those of other key agricultural commodities, rising 209% since the beginning of 2023, as of mid-March 2024. In contrast, rubber futures increased by "only" 69% during the same period, while prices of corn, wheat, and soybean meal dropped by 37%, 34%, and 29%, respectively.

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