Colombia-US clash shows trade dependence exploited by Trump

With Donald Trump barely into his first month in power, his short-lived clash with Colombia shows the leverage the US holds over trading partners dependent on the American market.

President Gustavo Petro initially refused to accept planes carrying Colombians ordered deported by Trump. The US president responded with a threat to impose 25% tariffs on Colombian products. Petro, in turn, threatened retaliatory tariffs on imports from the US. Days later, the dispute appeared to have been resolved: Colombia agreed to accept the deportees, and both nations suspended their proposed tariffs.

Our visualizations demonstrate why this dispute might have been resolved so quickly. Unlike many other South American nations, Colombia's biggest trading partner is the United States – especially so since a free-trade deal was signed almost two decades ago. (Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina do more trade with China.)

Americans might associate Colombia more with coffee, and petroleum with the Andean nation's Venezuelan neighbors. But as our first chart shows, oil and related products make up 41% of Colombia's exports to the US – by far the largest category. (With Trump sensitive to the prices Americans pay for gasoline at the pump, this might also suggest a reason the US president sought to avoid a prolonged dispute.) Coffee and the horticultural sector (i.e. flowers) account for 9% and 11% of exports, respectively; gold and gemstones are also important.

The US purchased about USD 13.1 billion worth of Colombian goods from January to November 2024, accounting for 29% of the nation's exports, as shown in our second chart. The European Union is the second-largest export market. China is only the fifth-largest, trailing India and Colombia's northern neighbor, Panama (which is facing its own threats from Trump over the Panama Canal).

As for Colombia's imports, 26% come from the US – just surpassing China's 24% share.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.