China's energy landscape: domestically-produced coal vs. increasing role of imported gas

China's rise to become Asia's biggest economy was fueled by coal. But over the past two decades, natural gas has taken on a more prominent role. Coal is particularly important in electricity generation and steel; gas is important for residential heating, and the government has also encouraged a switch from coal to gas for industries to improve urban air quality. ("Dual carbon" goals proposed by President Xi Jinping also call for an urgent shift toward a lower-carbon energy structure.)

As our first chart shows, we can see a transition about 20-25 years ago by measuring the trajectories of the growth rates for both energy sources. Since the early 2000s, the growth in coal use has gradually leveled off; however, gas use consistently jumped more than 10% per year for much of the 2000-2020 period. (During that time frame, coal fell from about 69% of the Chinese energy mix to 57%, as our second chart shows; for a period in the mid-2010s, coal consumption was actually shrinking year-on-year.)

A third "era" might be said to begin during the pandemic, though our latest figures breaking down coal and gas consumption only run to 2022 - when natural-gas consumption flatlined. Overall energy use has returned to the mid-2020's trend, however.

Fortunately for China's development, the nation is endowed with a very large share of global reserves, lessening its import dependence. It's both the world's largest coal producer and consumer. Imports of coal have steadily increased since about 2009, however; Indonesia is the biggest foreign supplier, with Mongolia, Australia and Russia also key sources of imports.

The picture is quite different for oil and natural gas. As our third chart shows, more than 70% of the crude oil China uses is imported; that figure is more than 40% for natural gas (much of it shipped in liquefied form from Australia).

Our final chart compares China's per capita energy use to the rest of the world since 2006. The average Chinese person still uses far less energy than their counterparts in most developed markets, though this per-capita metric has been consistently growing and surpasses Brazil and India. The least energy-intensive developed country in our chart is Japan; Canadians, by far, use the most energy per capita.