The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

The CEIC Leading Indicator for China was up by 2.78 from 109.48 in September to 112.26 in October, the highest level so far in 2020. After hitting a record low of 60.96 in February amid the COVID-19 epidemic, the indicator quickly bounced back and entered an expansion phase in May. October's reading was way above the pre-pandemic levels and indicated robust economic growth in China.

The automobile industry maintained its strong performance. Apart from the continued recovery of domestic demand, China’s automobile exports also surged in October. After a big jump in September, automobile production stabilized in October with a marginal increase of 0.8% m/m. However, compared to the same period of last year, automobile production grew by nearly 9%. Money supply was down on a monthly basis for the first time since July, however, on an annual basis it recorded a double-digit growth of 10.5%. Manufacturing confidence stabilized as well and China’s official PMI barely changed in October. The floor space sold of commodity buildings finally recorded a positive y/y growth rate - in the first ten months of 2020, it was marginally higher than in the same period of the previous year.

The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for China maintained its strong upward trajectory and continued to increase for the ninth consecutive month. In October, the indicator stood at 113.75, the highest level in nearly a decade, indicating that China’s robust economic growth will continue in 2020 and throughout 2021.

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here