The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

The flash estimates of the CEIC Leading Indicator for India show an increase from 100 in August 2020 to 112.4 in September 2020, continuing the upward trajectory since May 2020. The increase in September values for the leading indicator is primarily driven by improving industrial production and rising wholesale food prices. The declines in crude and finished steel moderated further from their August values of 4.4% y/y and 3.3% y/y to 1.7% y/y and 0.7% y/y in September, respectively. Gross generation of electricity registered its first increase in September, by 4.4% y/y, since March 2020 when the outbreak of COVID-19 started in India. On the other hand, the year-on-year values [growth?] of financial indicators such as treasury bills and money supply slowed down, even though they remained above their averages. Wholesale food prices rose by 6.9% y/y in September as compared to 4.1% y/y in August.

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The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator also continued to increase, reaching 105.4 in September 2020 from 98.4 in August as per flash estimates, marking the third consecutive increase in the indicator value. Despite being one of the worst COVID-19 hit nations globally, India has managed to turn around the declining trend that stemmed from the strict lockdown and demand disruptions. If this upward trend continues, India will not only be able to mitigate its decline in GDP for FY2021, but will also manage to match its pre-pandemic growth levels in FY2022.2020-10-16_12h45_14

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here