The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

After a substantial decline for two consecutive months in March and April 2020, India’s CEIC Leading Indicator went up to 52.7 in May and improved further to 80.1 in June. This development implies a steady revival of economic activity, which is also synchronous with the easing of the harsh lockdown measures. The positive performance can be attributed to an increase in consumption and industrial activity, mapped by vehicle sales, electricity generation, and steel production. The decline in automobile sales was less severe in June, at 57.7% y/y compared to 90.3% in May. Electricity generation and steel production also slowed down their drop in June, declining by 27.2% y/y and 11.8% y/y, respectively. Money supply (M2) remained on an upward trend as economic activity increased. Wholesale food inflation, which had been decreasing since January 2020, increased to 3.1% y/y in June from 2.3% y/y in May.


Despite the pick-up in economic activity, the smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator declined further from 69.3 in May 2020 to 62.6 in June 2020, showcasing the slowdown that has gripped the Indian economy. The fall in the indicator value proves that the improvement in key economic areas needs to be strengthened further in order to offset the slowdown. If the improvement is sustained, India could soon be entering a recovery phase of the economic cycle.2020-07-27_12h12_09

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here