The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

Despite a decline of 1.2 points in August, the CEIC Leading Indicator for China reached 110.8 in September, a record high in nearly three and a half years. With the exception of the slight decline in August, the indicator has maintained an upward trajectory since May, exceeding the benchmark value of 100 and indicating strong GDP growth acceleration prospects.

The continued recovery on the consumer side provided a boost to the automobile industry. In September automobile production surged again, after declining in July and August. In September, the output of motor vehicles was up by 373,000 units compared to the previous month and increased by nearly 11% y/y. Money supply was up 10.9% y/y, growing for the third month in a row and reaching RMB 216.4tn, the highest value in two decades. Financial institution deposits followed a similar trend, climbing all the way up to a record high in more than two decades, with a 10.7% increase y/y in September. Manufacturing confidence improved as China’s official PMI increased from 51 in August to 51.5 in September, the highest number since April this year. As of September, the floor space sold of commodity buildings, however, was still below the pre-pandemic levels. In the first nine months of 2020, it declined by 1.8% y/y.

The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for China showed even stronger growth momentum and continued to increase for the eighth consecutive month. In September, the indicator stood at 113.5, the highest since May 2010. This performance suggests a continued expansion of China’s economy in Q4 2020 and throughout 2021.

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here