The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

The CEIC Leading Indicator for China plunged to 111.3 in April from 115.9 in March, the first decline for the year, as the economic recovery slowed down in April after the boom in Q1. Money supply M2 grew by 8.1% y/y in April, the slowest pace since July 2019, as policymakers seek to prevent the economy from overheating. Financial institution deposits grew by 8.9% y/y in April, down from the nearly double-digit y/y growth rate in March.

The manufacturing sector also recorded signs of moderation. Car production in April was 228,000 units less than in March but grew by 6.3% y/y. Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.1 in April from 51.9 in March. The utilized FDI, however, maintained its strong growth momentum, supported by the solid recovery of the economy. From January to April, China’s utilized FDI increased by 42.8% y/y and reached USD 59bn, a decent absolute value compared with pre-pandemic years. The real estate sector also performed well. The floor space sold of commodity buildings surged by 48.1% y/y from January to April, a robust growth rate even considering the low base effect.

The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator continued its upward trend and rose to 114.4 in April, indicating solid growth prospects for China in Q2 and in the second half of 2021.

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here