The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

The development of China's CEIC Leading Indicator has remained relatively steady since June, ranging between 109 and 110. In August it declined marginally by 0.6 points m/m, but overall, the 109.2 result suggests that the economy is still in an expansion phase, above the long term trend of 100.

Automobile production saw a decrease compared to July but grew by 4.4% y/y, signalling the continued recovery of the automotive industry. Money supply increased to RMB 213.7tn, a record high number in the past five years, growing at a 10.4% annual rate. After reaching a plateau in July, the growth of financial institution deposits has picked up again to reach 10.25% y/y in August. Manufacturing confidence continues to be solid according to the National Bureau of Statics’ manufacturing PMI, which remains stable above the neutral point of 50%, at 51% in August. The real estate sector is recovering with the floor space sold of commodity buildings increasing for the eighth consecutive month. Compared with the same period last year, however, it still decreased by 3.3%.

Unlike its non-smoothed counterpart, the smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for China continued to increase, reaching 113.3, its highest level since Jan 2017. This performance suggests that China is still on the path to continued recovery after the hit of the pandemic and economic acceleration can be expected in the fourth quarter of the year.

Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here