After a slight drop in September 2021, the CEIC Leading Indicator for Indonesia returned to growth in October, increasing by 3.4 points m/m to 116.5, and continues to be the best performing among the observed regions. Palm oil prices continued to rise and reached another historic peak, averaging USD 1,413.1 per tonne in October. This contributed to another strong month of non-oil and gas exports’ value growth, which amounted to 52.8% y/y, higher than the 48% y/y increase in September.

Cement consumption accelerated moderately in October, growing at 4.6% y/y compared to 3.9% y/y in the previous month, displaying a robust performance after the low base effect faded in Q2 2021. Motor vehicle sales have been decelerating since May 2021, but continue to be much stronger than in most markets globally due to the extension of the tax discount for motor vehicles until the end of the year. The Jakarta composite stock exchange index closed in October at 6,591.4, gaining 4.8% m/m and closing at the highest level since February 2018.

The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for Indonesia increased in October reaching 114.9, suggesting that the Indonesian economy is still performing above its long-term trend and that the peak of the business cycle has not been passed yet.