The CEIC Leading Indicator is a proprietary dataset designed by CEIC Insights to precede the development of major macroeconomic indicators and predict the turning points of the economic cycle for key markets. It is a composite leading indicator which is calculated by aggregating and weighting selected leading indicators covering various important sectors of the economy, such as financial markets, the monetary sector, labour market, trade and industry. It is developed through a proprietary CEIC methodology and employs data from the CEIC database. The CEIC Leading Indicator currently covers eight regions – Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, the Euro Area, Japan and the United States.

The CEIC Leading Indicator for China showed a slight moderation with the reading down from 114.33 in November to 111.39 in December. However, the indicator is still close to its highest level since early 2017 and has stayed above the 100 benchmark value for the eighth consecutive month. After a surge in November, automobile production stabilized in December with a marginal increase of 0.8% m/m. In y/y terms, it grew by 3.7%, the lowest y/y growth rate since automobile production started to recover after the hit of the pandemic. Money supply in December continued its double-digit y/y growth rate. Manufacturing confidence stood at 51.9 in December, slightly lower than November’s reading. Demand in real estate recovered gradually. Total floor space sold in 2020 increased by 2.6% compared to 2019.

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The smoothed CEIC Leading Indicator for China continued its upward trend and rose to 113.85 in December, the highest level in more than a decade. This is boding well for the Chinese economy in 2021.

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Keep informed each month on the predicted turning points of the economic cycle for key markets with our free, proprietary CEIC Leading Indicator. Learn more and register here