Washington diners stayed home: daily restaurant data and discretionary spending

Are concerns about civil unrest keeping Washington diners at home? We've tapped restaurant-reservation data from OpenTable as a real-time proxy for social activity and consumer spending in the nation's capital.

Most recently, we were struck by the sharp decline in restaurant bookings on OpenTable's app that followed President Trump's Aug. 11 order "federalizing" local law enforcement. (The District of Columbia's unique status gives US presidents limited power to temporarily take over local policing from the city's own government.) The Federal Bureau of Investigation and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) had been patrolling Washington's streets since Aug. 8

As our chart shows, the year-on-year trend for DC dining deteriorated sharply after Aug. 8, moving into negative territory. On Aug. 13, OpenTable bookings were down more than 30% from the same day a year earlier. (Our dotted line represents week-on-week bookings to smooth out the effects of weekends and holidays, but still demonstrates the same trend.) Meanwhile, OpenTable's US-wide figures showed a broadly stable year-on-year growth trend.

Trump cited an assault on a young DOGE staffer in the run-up to his federalization order. Washington has indeed struggled with high crime over the years -- especially just after the pandemic -- though the Department of Justice said earlier this year that the violent-crime rate fell to a 30-year low in 2024. The executive order has been challenged by Democrat lawmakers who state that Trump hasn't demonstrated there is a true emergency in the nation's capital.

Trump is broadly not popular in the largely Democrat-voting city, and there have been regular protests against his policies on immigration and other matters. It's notable that our chart also reveals how Washington diners didn't take part in a nationwide trend to book restaurant meals over the July 4 long weekend.

OpenTable statistics provide invaluable, high-frequency insights into the impact of short-term, event-specific shocks on discretionary spending. For instance, we've previously deployed this platform's data to track how Australian consumer confidence gradually recovered after the pandemic.

Our second chart shows how US restaurant bookings have broadly correlated with two important official statistics: the monthly retail sales and food-services indicator and the Chicago Fed's weekly index of retail trade. We've also shown how OpenTable bookings trends correlate with the monthly indicator from US restaurants' trade association and the Census Bureau's key indicator for restaurant meals.

Click here to read about Australian consumer confidence.

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