US pharma tariffs: implications for Switzerland, Ireland, India and others

Donald Trump has threatened to extend his tariffs to pharmaceuticals. A 100% tariff on imported drugs is taking effect this month -- unless the manufacturer is currently investing in US production facilities. (As of the time of publication, the US had struck a deal with Pfizer, which earned a tariff reprieve in exchange for discounted drugs sold directly to US consumers.)

With this tariff file still in flux amid the potential for more deals, we've examined the sources of US pharma imports. The United Nations Comtrade Database indicates that the European Union accounts for the largest share -- Ireland and Germany, in particular.

Pharmaceuticals are Ireland’s top export, and the US is its most important market. Pfizer and most other global drugmakers have long operated there.

On the other end of our chart is India, which is in the midst of its own, wider disputes with the US president. Indian drugmakers are less important for the US market than their European counterparts, but they are even more dependent than the Irish on the US market.

Switzerland, home to Roche and Novartis, is the second-largest source of US pharmaceutical imports. Its status outside the EU left it exposed when Trump struck tariff deals with the 27-nation trading bloc. That's a potentially serious problem for the Swiss, as our next three charts show: the pharmaceutical sector is critical to Switzerland’s economy and has been the dominant driver of GDP growth in recent quarters. The industry contributes about 8% of gross value added (GVA) and roughly a quarter of total exports.

While Swiss goods have faced a 39% "reciprocal" tariff since August 2025, pharmaceuticals had remained exempt.

Pfizer's discounts give Trump a win. The president had pledged to lower US drug costs in his second term, criticizing firms for charging American consumers far more than they do in Europe. We've visualized how over the past 20 years, US drug prices have risen faster than in peer high-income countries.

So far, pharma stocks have largely shrugged off this threat -- at least in Europe. Observers point out that European companies have stockpiles of drugs already in the US to sell to local consumers tariff-free before more need to be imported.

American and German pharmaceutical shares have strongly outperformed this year, while Swiss stocks have remained resilient despite their greater tariff risks. By contrast, Indian and Japanese pharma equities have lagged behind since the start of 2025.

We conclude with the CDS market, which shows only modest shifts in credit risk for global major drugmakers: tariffs are seen as a threat to profitability, rather than solvency.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.