US alcohol exports take a hit from trade retaliation

Total US exports of alcoholic beverages fell about 18% in July, showing what happens when beer, wine and spirits brands get caught up in trade disputes.

The most punishing losses came from Canada. State alcohol monopolies in Ontario and Quebec have cut off sales of US booze entirely; that led to a whopping 77.8% year-on-year decline in July, measured on a three-month rolling average basis. (Canada previously accounted for about one-fifth of US exports in this category.)

Alcohol as a trade-war weapon long predates the Trump era, however; the US and European Union had a multi-decade dispute over aircraft subsidies involving Boeing and Airbus, and alcohol brands in both markets got caught up in rounds of retaliatory tariffs.

Our second chart tracks the ups and downs of US exports from the first Trump term, noting moments where tariffs were imposed and removed. EU-US talks in October 2022 saw a suspension of European retaliatory tariffs through March 2025; that led to a notable increase in US alcohol exports in 2024. (The deterioration in exports during 2025 may have been amplified by high base effects.)

Brewers and distillers are also not finding much relief from domestic drinkers as younger Americans consume less than older generations. The last golden era was the Covid splurge; retail sales of alcoholic beverages have been falling since early 2025, at odds with other consumer-spending trends.

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