Our new Polish agriculture index signals food disinflation

CEIC has added a new, high-frequency index for Polish food prices. It's showing an easing trend after the price rebound of 2024-25 -- and has disinflationary implications for Europe more broadly.

Our Agriculture Selling Price Index, released weekly, tracks more than 40 categories of foodstuffs tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Our index is derived from the prices farmers and other food producers receive for their goods, which tend to have a leading effect on the prices consumers pay at the supermarket. And with the index's high frequency, it quickly picks up supply-side pressures.

It has slowed every week in August and is approaching an annualized rate of 3%. We've charted it against the food component of the consumer price index, which has also been slowing; July's figure showed food CPI staying below an annualized 5% rate for a second month.

This disinflationary trend likely gives Poland's central bank more room to ease policy when it meets on Sept. 2.

We've also charted our index against French, German and Europe-wide food CPI to show its broad correlation with the rest of Poland's EU trading partners.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.