India's Russian oil imports have displeased Trump

Donald Trump has threatened punitive tariffs against India, unhappy with the nation's imports of Russian oil -- which he views as prolonging Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. (As of the time of publication, the threatened tariff rate would be 50% -- which would be among the highest the US president has imposed.)

Indeed, India (via its state-owned refiners) has become one of Russia's key markets since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. With other buyers opting not to purchase Russian oil due to western sanctions, India has been able to benefit from a discount, as well.

Our first chart (tapping data from India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry, and using the "mineral fuels" category in the Harmonized System) shows just how oil imports from Russia have surged from very low levels, displacing traditional supply from Persian Gulf countries.

Trump further accused India of profiting via buying discounted Russian crude that is then refined and sold on the open market. (State-owned refineries are reportedly already pulling back from Russian purchases.)

To illustrate the basis of Trump's claim, we charted the value of India's Russian energy imports in rupee terms. This has roughly tracked the value of India's mineral-fuels exports, which we broke down into different categories.

Until now, the US had restrained its criticism of India, with President Biden seeking to cooperate with New Delhi in other geostrategic fields; meanwhile, India-US commerce had become increasingly important in IT services and pharmaceuticals.

India has a longstanding relationship with Russia as a military supplier, and has taken a stance of broad neutrality on the Russia-Ukraine war. It hasn't followed any of the West's sanctions and has vowed to keep buying the discounted Russian crude for its own energy security. However, it has also criticized the EU for its own continued imports of Russian energy under the sanctions regime.

Click here to read about how India has become one of Russia's key markets