Canadian export slump on Trump threats has already shown up in daily shipping data

Canadian export growth had been improving for six months. But that streak is likely to be broken when February data is released. This official indicator is closely correlated with Marine Traffic's port-call statistics - specifically, the measure of vessels being loaded at Canadian ports. (Official export statistics won't be released until April 3.)

From September 2024, Canadian exports steadily improved in year-on-year terms, moving from contraction to a 21% jump in January. This outsized gain is, again, likely a Trump effect; around the world, data is showing there was a rush to get goods into the US before Trump would take office and his tariffs might hit (particularly in physical gold.)

Over this six-month time frame, port loading operations were rising at a similar 5%-20% pace.

By February, port loading was in contraction. While these numbers had improved somewhat as of mid-March, the trends do not bode well for Canada's trade war with the US - which is, by far, its largest trading partner.

As our second chart shows, Canada's February and March export trends appear to be consistent with developed-market counterparts. From the G7 to Australia and South Korea, weak port call readings came in last month, followed by a shaky March recovery. We've also added the equivalent chart for the BRIICs nations; they appear to be having a stronger March turnaround, albeit from much worse contraction.

Marine Traffic's daily shipping port departures and port loading operations have empirically anticipated many major export growth trends, We invite you to visit CEIC's port dashboard for more.