Australia: only a marginal drop for the stubborn CPI plateau

Australian central bankers had recently ruled out rate cuts until 2025, and suggested they might even extend the monetary tightening cycle.

​With official May CPI data unavailable until the end of June, our nowcast gives an early insight into whether the RBA will stick to this stance. Inflation will likely drop slightly to a 3.5% year-on-year pace in May, following its unwelcome acceleration in April.

Our weekly inflation nowcasts for emerging and developed markets use a comprehensive machine-learning model that deploys high-frequency and alternative data indicators. This gives CEIC users a timely edge: the Australian Bureau of Statistics is not scheduled to publish official April CPI figures until June 26th.

We also demonstrate the influence of different factors on our estimates at any given point in time. For an examination of the underlying factors influencing our Australian inflation nowcast, we invite CEIC users to click here for our dashboard.

If you are a CEIC user, access the story here.