A global semiconductor slowdown? Early insights can be found in South Korea

South Korea releases staggered, month-to-date foreign trade figures, providing 10-day and 20-day updates for the start of a calendar month. We've previously examined how this can be a useful and early proxy for neighboring East Asian economies. But given the outsized importance of South Korea's semiconductor sector, we can also use these figures to extrapolate demand for the global chip industry.

The 20-day trade statistics for South Korean semiconductor exports have largely moved in line with global semiconductor net billings - a key indicator published by World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS).

As our chart shows, the most recent semiconductor demand cycle appears to have peaked in mid-2024; South Korea's semiconductor exports deteriorated 3.0% in February. The 20-day indicator for March is suggesting another downward tick