In the third quarter of 2024, all eyes will be on two central banks moving in different directions.
If markets are to be believed – and their track record over the past 12 months is decidedly mixed – the 'pivot point' for US interest rates is nearly here. The US economy stayed resilient much longer than some observers expected, but a 25-basis-point rate cut is likely for the September 17-18 meeting; markets haven’t ruled out a bigger reduction, however.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan shook global markets recently with a surprise rate increase – disrupting the “carry trade” that funded leveraged bets using cheap yen. Will they tighten policy again, and would that mean more shocks beyond Japan’s borders?
Join our webinar on September 12th. EPFR’s powerful, international fund-flow insights will be combined with CEIC’s machine learning-driven economic nowcasts. Experts from EPFR and CEIC will delve into the expectations surrounding the Fed and the BoJ, and the implications for the world's biggest creditor and debtor nations
agenda:
- Is the Fed more likely to cut by 25 basis points or half a percentage point?
- Is the US in recession? Examining the most recent macro signals
- What are risk assets signaling to market observers?
- How would lower US rates affect the widening fiscal deficit?
- The Bank of Japan’s warning of more rate hikes to come, and the implications for the carry trade
- Tracking inflation in real time using CEIC nowcasts
